Quarterly Insights
2024-04-01
2024 Q1 State of The Market
View our comprehensive analysis of recent market trends.
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
- Q1 ended with a decrease in modern jet available inventory for the first time in eight quarters, now at 6.2% of the Active Fleet for sale. Both December and January saw reductions compared to the prior month, the first time that two consecutive months recorded reductions since February 2022. However, February through April have all recorded increases to inventory, so this appears to be a minor blip against the greater macro trend of increasing supply.
- Retail transaction volume in Q1 was a fairly positive story, with 256 aircraft sold or a 10% increase year-over-year, which is only the second time there has been a quarterly year-over-year increase in this metric in the last two years. The industry is keeping a close eye on this metric over the next few months to determine how this year will play out relative to an “average” year in 2023.
NEW DELIVERIES
- With the final tally now in, the business jet manufacturers reported their full-year 2023 deliveries to GAMA in Q1. The below graph indicates the total number of jets delivered by Bombardier, Dassault, Embraer, Gulfstream, Honda, Pilatus, and Textron relative to previous years.
- Last year continued to see very modest growth in the segment, up 15 total aircraft to 627 shipments or a 2% year-over-year increase among those seven aircraft manufacturers. Roughly 20% of these deliveries went to fractional aviation programs, a rate that is more than double the ~9% average in years 2001 to 2019.
- Bombardier led the way with a 15 aircraft YOY increase (+12%), followed by Embraer at 13 aircraft (+13%), while Pilatus and Honda also grew their YOY deliveries, by 7 (+18%) and 5 (+29%) respectively. Textron, Gulfstream, and Dassault all saw reductions to YOY deliveries, citing mostly labor and supply chain constraints, as well as certification delays of the G700 in Gulfstream’s case, which would have increased their deliveries by 15 last year and had them back in growth territory.
- Overall, business jet deliveries remain down 13% compared to the pre-pandemic volume seen in 2019 and down 45% compared to the all-time highs of 2008. This lack of significant growth of new deliveries in the face of unprecedented private aviation demand over the last three years is a major reason aircraft values had climbed so high and likely will stay relatively protected in modern fleets so long as the economy holds stable.