Quarterly Insights
2023-09-09
2023 Q3 State of The Market
View our comprehensive analysis of recent market trends.
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
- The same trends evident in the first half of the year have continued throughout Q3, with inventory now up to 6.0% of the total fleet for sale, due to both an increase in aircraft coming to market and a lower level of demand than seen in prior years. If this pace of increasing inventory continues, we should reach the 8% historical benchmark of fleet availability in Q3 of 2024.
- Total retail transaction volume in Q3 2023 was down 19% year-over-year, and nearly flat quarter-over-quarter. Year-to-date transaction volume is down 25% versus 2022 but remains in line with the levels seen through the first half of 2018—2020.
- The predominant sentiment amongst many in the Broker/Dealer community is that by and large, the pre-owned jet market is relatively healthy but continues to trend more buyer-favorable every month that goes by.
IADA DEALER ACTIVITY
- The below chart includes data provided by the International Aircraft Dealers Association, an association of the 60 largest dealers/brokers in the world.
- The two most recent months of August and September have seen the largest delta between newly signed buyer and seller agreements since these metrics have been reported, with 40 more sellers coming to the market than buyers. In addition, 14 of the last 16 months have had more sellers than buyers sign agreements, which is an abrupt shift from the 15 straight months from March 2021 through May 2022 in which the opposite was true and buyers outnumbered sellers.
- As mentioned in prior quarterly publishes, this is due to various macroeconomic and industry factors such as expectations of a looming recession, geopolitical instability, increasing interest rates, reducing charter demand and revenues, and more.