Quarterly Insights
2023-06-11
2023 Q2 State of The Market
View our comprehensive analysis of recent market trends.
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
- The same trends evident in Q1 continued throughout Q2, with inventory now up to 5.6% of the total fleet for sale, due to both an increase in aircraft coming to market and a lower level of demand than seen in prior years. If this pace of increasing inventory continues, we should reach the 8% historical benchmark of fleet availability in Q2 of 2024.
- Total retail transaction volume in Q2 2023 was down 23% year-over-year, but up 32% quarter-over-quarter. Through the first half of the year, transaction volume is down 28% versus 2022 but remains in line with the levels seen through the first half of 2018–2020.
- The predominant sentiment amongst many in the Broker/Dealer community is that by and large, the pre-owned jet market is healthy and more fairly buyer-seller balanced than in recent years—similar to the dynamics seen before the pandemic and the subsequent rush to private aviation.
Aircraft Values Are Returning to ‘Normal’
- The below graph illustrates the quarter-by-quarter change in VREF book values for an average 2009 Gulfstream G550, whose current base book value in 2023 Q2 is $16,233,978.
- As is evident, immediately following the international COVID lockdowns, values in G550s had begun a downward trend in Q2 2020 through Q3 2021, dropping well below the standard depreciation curve. Then the trend flipped, and, like many other modern in-production fleets, values began to increase in Q4 2021 and hadn’t seen a decrease in seven quarters, surpassing the standard depreciation curve.
- Buyers and sellers alike should keep in mind that the recent increase in number of price reduction events and sales price decreases that we’ve seen in many markets thus far this year is really a return to how the pre-owned jet markets should behave as depreciating assets.