- Following a minor decrease in January, the supply of modern pre-owned jets has now climbed to 4.7% of the in-service fleet available for sale—a level not seen since June 2021. While total inventory levels remain roughly half of what is historically considered to be a balanced market, these recent upticks in new aircraft listings are already challenging an increasingly fragile supply/demand environment.
- Total retail transaction volume in Q1 2023 was 35% less than that of Q1 2022 and is the lowest level of demand since Q2 2020.
- Thirty days into Q2, we are seeing inventory continuing to rise in many markets. With a correction in values already underway, the predominant questions from most in the market are how much do values decline and how quickly do they move before equilibrium is again achieved.
Pricing Pressures and Days to Sell
- As a result of the new listings volume increases mentioned above, the pre-owned jet market has experienced a significant uptick in publicly announced reductions to pricing for aircraft already listed on market—Q1 had more than three times the “price reductions” compared with Q1 2022.
- The average days on market for publicly available aircraft to sell has also been on the rise and is now up to 168 days after hitting an all-time low of 88 days in September 2022.
- Lowering “pricing expectations” and increasing “days-on-market to sell” are experiences that sellers had not had to deal with in the last 16 months, but both of these metrics trends are indicative of what aircraft owners can expect to see in the months ahead.