Quarterly Insights
2021-12-01
2021 Q4 state of the market
View our comprehensive analysis of recent market trends.
Market Highlights
- Q4 transactions decreased 26% YOY, mainly due to the abnormally high percentage of transactions in Q4 2020 as the pre-owned market recovery gained full strength. This recovery continued throughout 2021, resulting in 2021 transactions exceeding those in 2020 by 29%
- With supply down 57% over the past 9 months, 2022 transaction volume in modern, pre-owned business jet markets will be constrained by a lack of quality supply rather than by a lack of prospective buyers. Aircraft are increasingly being sold “off-market” and well before the general public is made aware of availability.
A Historic Pre-Owned Jet Market
- The above graph shows pre-owned business jet inventory as a percentage of fleet availability since 1986. Total jet inventory continues to free-fall quarter-by- quarter, resulting in current availability of less than 4%, the lowest percentage on record.
- Q4 2021 saw the second-most jet retail transaction volume of any Q4 in history, of which ranks 4th overall of the 145 documented quarters, even while battling a historically-low level of supply.
New Delivery Availability
- The second half of 2021 saw pre-owned inventory levels decline considerably, which lead to the rise in values detailed on page 2. Consequently, many prospective buyers of like new, late-model pre-owned aircraft acquired new aircraft as pre-owned pricing exceeded that of new deliveries.
- This shift in focus to new aircraft has created very favorable conditions for the OEMs, who now possess substantial multi-year backlogs (examples detailed above), strong cash flows and deposits, and higher margins than they have enjoyed in more than 14 years.