Quarterly Insights
2021-10-01
2021 Q3 state of the market
View our comprehensive analysis of recent market trends.
Market Highlights
- Available inventory in modern, pre-owned jet markets continues to trend downward, with less than 4% of the fleet available for sale, less than half of the 8% that is historically indicative of a “balanced” market.
- Retail transaction volume remains strong despite the lack of publicly available inventory; Q3 2021 outperformed Q3 2020 by 23%, and a more “normal” quarter of Q3 2019 by 43%.
- Record aircraft utilization, historic charter demand, and first-time buyers continue to fuel the markets. Absent a black swan event, values will trend higher in Q4 thanks to limited inventory and the favorable tax environment through year-end.
Market Values
- Aircraft values are up approximately 12% across all market segments YTD, with some markets up as much as 30% in the past 9 months.
- Thanks to a dramatic increase in new aircraft orders and the resultant OEM backlogs, many of which extend well into 2022 or 2023, late model (less than 5 years old) aircraft have experienced the most dramatic increases in values.
- Values continue to increase with most desirable aircraft now sold via a bidding, or auction style process, well before their public release to the market. This phenomenon has resulted in the most Seller favorable market conditions in the history of business aviation.
A Historic Pre-Owned Jet Market
- The above graph shows pre-owned business jet inventory as a percentage of fleet availability since 1986. Total jet inventory continues to free fall quarter after quarter and the current availability of less than 4% is the lowest percentage on record.
- Q3, 2021 had the highest jet retail transaction volume of any Q3 in history and ranks 4th in total retail transaction volume of the 144 quarters ever documented.
- Record low supply (pre-owned and new), strong demand, and increases in pricing have created a very favorable environment for aircraft sellers and one of the most challenging environment for buyers in the past 13 years.